A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
